In times marked by uncertainty and looming threats, foresight emerges as an essential tool to anticipate potential risks such as the unforeseen flood in Kathmandu, and delve deeper into signs of approaching change.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya is the most populated mountain region in the world with 270 million people. Around one-third of the population is facing food insecurity, and half of them are suffering from malnutrition with more severe impacts on children and women. Ecosystem services from the HKH region, particularly freshwater services, directly and indirectly impact 2.1 billion people (nearly one-fourth of the world population) living in upstream and downstream areas of river basins – so what happens in the mountains impacts people living beyond the mountain region.
The region hosts all or parts of four global biodiversity hotspots – the Himalaya, the Indo-Burma, the Mountains of Central Asia, and the Mountains of Southwest China – supporting diverse flora and fauna. People in the HKH region are experiencing both climate change and biodiversity losses. These drivers of change are interwoven and have significant impact on the lives and livelihoods of mountain people as well as their capacity to respond or adapt to these changes. The major livelihoods of mountain communities are agriculture, livestock, tourism, and the collection and trading of medicinal and aromatic plants. These livelihoods are significantly and adversely impacted by climate change and biodiversity losses. Major adverse impacts include crop loss and failure, fodder shortage, livestock deaths, decrease in the availability of medicinal and aromatic plants, and degradation of aesthetic experiences (which impact mood and wellbeing). In many areas, communities have abandoned agriculture and pastoralism in response to climate change impacts. These impacts have further exacerbated the socioeconomic vulnerability of mountain communities, including food and nutrition insecurity. They have also resulted in the displacement of populations from high-risk areas and have exacerbated the existing trends of labour out-migration from the region, for livelihoods and other social, economic and political drivers. Adaptation assessments reports have consistently indicated that adaptation actions are happening at an incremental pace, are mostly autonomous, and are at individual and community scales.
Mountain communities in the HKH region are dependent on meltwater from snow and glaciers, in addition to rain, to meet their water needs. Water supply systems in downstream regions, including in densely populated urban settlements, are dependent on meltwater for domestic and commercial purposes. Along with growing demand and insufficient infrastructure, climate change is likely to further exacerbate water shortages in the region. Climate change-related hazards in the region have caused significant loss of lives, and loss and damage of property, infrastructure, and tangible and intangible cultural heritage. These disasters have led to a loss of traditional knowledge, increased social and economic burdens, and caused psychological stress and displacement. Climate-related hazards are projected to increase in the HKH region in the future, adding investment burdens with long-term implications for national and regional economies.
In order to adapt to the impacts of climate change, most countries in the region have developed National Adaptation Plans and Strategies and are now gearing up to implement them. ‘UAE-Belem work programme’ convened by UNFCCC is working on refining and developing indicators for measuring progress towards the Global Goal on adaptation in eight domains – water, food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure and human settlements, poverty and livelihoods, cultural heritage, and policy cycle. Parties, intergovernmental organisations, UN agencies and INGOs have submitted more than 5000 indicators; COP29 is a key event to further advance this work.
This is a pivotal moment for mountain countries and communities to ensure that the eight domains sufficiently cover aspects important to mountain areas. Common indicators for all types of geographies may not capture the sensitivity of mountain systems to climate change and may not capture the effectiveness of adaptation actions. For instance, we must ensure that the water domain covers springs; the food domain must cover adaptation on agriculture and food supply chains, and the revival of abandoned land; ecosystems must cover rangelands; human settlements must cover vernacular architecture, etc. Furthermore, it is critical to ensure that the indicators reflect and are relevant to the specific context of mountains to capture the progress made in adaptation (or lack of), and enable credible flows of finance to this region.
Annex
Background of UAE-Belem Work Programme (source: Global goal on adaptation | UNFCCC)
The Paris Agreement of 2015 established the global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in the context of the temperature goal referred to in its Article 2.
At CMA 3 in 2021, Parties established the Glasgow-Sharm el Sheikh work programme on the global goal on adaptation. Upon completion of the work programme in 2023, CMA 5 adopted the UAE Framework on Global Climate Resilience, and also launched a two-year UAE–Belém work programme on indicators.
At CMA 5, Parties adopted the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience, as part of the UAE Consensus. The framework includes a range of thematic and dimensional targets for climate adaptation and resilience.
CMA 5 also established a two-year UAE – Belém work programme, on the development of indicators for measuring progress achieved towards the targets outlined in the framework, and Parties provided guidance on the structure and modalities of the work programme at SB 60.
SB 60 requested their Chairs to convene technical experts to assist in the technical work under the United Arab Emirates–Belém work programme.