Foresight: Translating future uncertainty into present-day choices

In the last week of September 2024, Kathmandu and other parts of Nepal experienced heavy flooding, claiming more than 200 lives with many still missing. Streets and settlements that once buzzed with life were swallowed by water, sweeping away homes, vehicles, and any sense of safety. "No one saw this coming in Kathmandu," many of us said, but perhaps we should have. While the intensity of the flood was unexpected, the devastation felt tragically inevitable due to unplanned settlements in or near floodplains. These floods serve as a grim reminder of the growing vulnerability posed by both climate change and non-climatic factors that increase the risks and frequency of such unprecedented disasters.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is particularly vulnerable, grappling with the mounting challenges of climate change and increasing natural hazards and environmental degradation, threatening the lives and livelihoods of more than one billion people. In addition to these environmental stresses, the region is undergoing rapid socioeconomic shifts marked by increased migration, urbanisation, conflicts, persistent inequalities, and technological development such as artificial intelligence (AI). Along with these converging trends and critical shifts, the world is already experiencing a triple planetary crisis of climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, with the HKH at the frontline of this crisis. This amplifies uncertainties across multiple systems, underscoring the urgent need for foresight.

The pressing need for foresight

Many of us may wish we possess ‘the ability to predict what will happen or be needed in the future’. Beyond this everyday use of the word, ‘foresight’ is a term used in social science, international development and policymaking which refers to the disciplined analysis of alternative futures, with the aim of making better-informed decisions, having considered future eventualities, scenarios and outcomes. In times marked by uncertainty and looming threats, foresight emerges as an essential tool to anticipate potential risks such as the unforeseen flood in Kathmandu, and delve deeper into signs of approaching change. It gives insight into potential future scenarios that can drastically affect lives and livelihoods. Foresight helps “strengthen resilience against the unexpected” by translating future uncertainty into present actionable decisions. It also provides a framework for governments, public organisations, and the private sector to identify pathways to mitigate future risks. UNDP has adopted foresight approaches for the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and it is now increasingly common for development institutions to develop strategies in the face of an uncertain future.

Setting a foresight mindset

To kickstart future thinking and introduce a foresight mindset in the HKH region, ICIMOD organised a consultative workshop in September 2023. The workshop highlighted the pressing need to understand foresight concepts and strengthen the capacity to use various foresight tools effectively, especially among government agencies, non-governmental organisations, academic and research organisations, and development practitioners.

ICIMOD has adopted the participatory foresight methodology specifically for the HKH region adapted from the foresight framework developed by Foresight4Food (Figure 1). The foresight framework employs futures thinking and scenario analysis engaging a wide range of stakeholders with scientific evidence and application of several participatory tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLDs) – which show how different variables and factors in a system are causally interrelated, rich pictures – which summarise a situation through drawings, impact-uncertainty matrix to explore and calculate critical uncertainties, and social, technological, economic, environmental, political, legal and ethical (STEEPLE) analysis. The foresight approach employs systems thinking, a holistic approach to understanding the complexities and dynamics of various systems. This helps stakeholders envision potential future risks and vulnerabilities while also recognising opportunities for strategic future planning and decision-making.

Building on this momentum, ICIMOD held a six-day training workshop in collaboration with Foresight4Food in August 2024 in Dhulikhel, Nepal. The event brought together 51 participants representing over 30 organisations from six countries in the region – Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan – and from the Netherlands, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. The training was targeted towards government agencies, non-governmental organisations, academic and research organisations, and development practitioners who can benefit from effectively applying foresight tools in their line of work.

Deep dive into participatory exercises

During the six-day training, participants actively engaged in hands-on exercises organised into four thematic groups: migration, climate change adaptation, pastoralism, and disaster risk reduction (DRR). The workshop followed the foresight framework, structured into four key phases, where participants engaged in a variety of participatory tools (Figure 1). The application of tools such as the CLDs, STEEPLE analysis and impact uncertainty matrix showed the participants how to unravel the complexities and gain a better understanding of a system’s components, interconnections, patterns and behaviour over time.

Specific foresight tools further encouraged participants to think beyond their existing knowledge; these included: rich pictures, visioning – the process of developing a ‘vision’ or aspirational goal, four scenarios – developing narratives of possible futures, and back-casting – visioning a future situation and then working back to identify the steps needed to get there. These sessions sparked creativity, enthusiasm, and exchange of knowledge, ideas and insights. They were insightful in understanding and mapping complexities and identifying transformational pathways of change, and also highly enjoyable, as evidenced by the creative collaboration of the interdisciplinary groups.

Plural outcomes

As we engaged in scenario-building exercises, it was interesting to note that one scenario could lead to multiple implications that may be favourable to one group but not to another. The complexity and interplay of varying interests and conflicting ideas were highlighted through role-playing activities. While role plays sparked creativity, fun, and laughter, they also illustrated the realities of competing interests and the plural outcomes for different stakeholders, as no matter what the future holds, there will always be winners and losers. This demonstrates how crucial it is to integrate gender and social inclusion into the foresight process, to add valuable perspectives, in order to help ensure that diverse implications of scenarios are considered, and that potential vulnerabilities and inequalities are addressed while developing future scenarios.

Integrating a futures lens

At the outset of the training, the participants were eager to tackle one pivotal question: how can foresight tools be effectively applied in their work? After successful completion of the training, they were better equipped to use foresight tools to guide decision-making and policy. They identified ways to weave foresight into their work and also made commitments. One of the significant outcomes of the training workshop is the application of foresight methods in three areas: migration, climate change adaptation, and rangeland management in the region. These foresight activities will span across diverse landscapes of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. By adopting a foresight approach, civil society organisations and policymakers can support anticipating the challenges ahead, ensuring that development strategies are resilient and sustainable. Bringing a futures lens into their respective lines of work can be a positive way to start a new journey. As we advance, the foresight approaches and tools that we trained the participants in and will be using in different lines of work will also help to further develop a robust framework that not only helps to anticipate the future but actively helps to shape it, ensuring that the region is resilient amidst the uncertainties of tomorrow.